Nacional vs Alverca — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Nacional
34%
Draw
30%
Alverca
36%
pick · result
Final score
1–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Alverca win 35.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Alverca win. Expected goals 1.28–1.27 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–1 (9.3%), 0–0 (9.1%). It finished 1–3.
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Nacional
| 10 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sporting | 0–2 | L |
Alverca
| 9 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sporting | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Santa Clara | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Braga | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nacional (Home · 5 matches) | Alverca (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Nacional's home record; away stats use Alverca's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.