Nacional vs Academico de Viseu — Primeira Liga forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Nacional
32%
Draw
29%
Academico de Viseu
39%
Expected goals
1.23–1.39
Nacional · Academico de Viseu
Academico de Viseu win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (8.7%), 0–0 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Nacional score at least twice in 35%; Academico de Viseu in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Academico de Viseu goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.8 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Nacional goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market reference | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 29% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Nacional | 3.03 |
| Draw | 3.37 |
| Academico de Viseu | 2.38 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Nacional
| 10 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sporting | 0–2 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nacional (Home · 5 matches) | Academico de Viseu (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | — |
Home stats use Nacional's home record; away stats use Academico de Viseu's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.