Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora — Primeira Liga forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Moreirense
31%
Draw
29%
Estrela Amadora
40%
Expected goals
1.22–1.36
Moreirense · Estrela Amadora
Estrela Amadora win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (9.8%), 1–2 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Moreirense score at least twice in 34%; Estrela Amadora in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Estrela Amadora goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Moreirense goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market reference | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 29% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Moreirense | 3.05 |
| Draw | 3.28 |
| Estrela Amadora | 2.40 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Moreirense
| 9 Aug | H | vs Braga | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Porto | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
Estrela Amadora
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Braga | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Moreirense (Home · 4 matches) | Estrela Amadora (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Moreirense's home record; away stats use Estrela Amadora's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.