Gil Vicente vs Porto — Primeira Liga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Gil Vicente
13%
Draw
21%
Porto
67%
Expected goals
0.76–1.90
Gil Vicente · Porto
Porto win 67% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13.9%), 0–2 (13.2%), 1–2 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Gil Vicente score at least twice in 17%; Porto in 58%.
Scoreline distribution
Porto goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Gil Vicente goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Market reference | 13% | 21% | 67% |
| Metis Forecast | 13% | 21% | 67% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 7.00 |
| Draw | 4.45 |
| Porto | 1.45 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Gil Vicente
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rio Ave | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Casa Pia | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Famalicao | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Academico Viseu | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Benfica | 1–3 | L |
Porto
| 9 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Arouca | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Academico Viseu | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Moreirense | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gil Vicente (Home · 4 matches) | Porto (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Gil Vicente's home record; away stats use Porto's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.