Famalicao vs Sporting — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 35.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Famalicao
17%
Draw
20%
result
Sporting
63%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 20.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sporting win. Expected goals 0.90–1.60 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (18.0%), 1–2 (14.7%), 0–2 (11.3%). It finished 1–1.
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Famalicao
| 7 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Gil Vicente | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
Sporting
| 8 Aug | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nacional | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Famalicao (Home · 4 matches) | Sporting (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Famalicao's home record; away stats use Sporting's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.