Famalicao vs Arouca — Primeira Liga forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Famalicao
49%
Draw
27%
Arouca
24%
Expected goals
1.46–0.99
Famalicao · Arouca
Famalicao win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (12.5%), 2–1 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Famalicao win is 1–0 (12.5%).
Famalicao score at least twice in 43%; Arouca in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Arouca goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Famalicao goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market reference | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Famalicao
| 7 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Gil Vicente | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
Arouca
| 8 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Estoril | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Famalicao (Home · 4 matches) | Arouca (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 1.60 |
Home stats use Famalicao's home record; away stats use Arouca's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.