Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Estrela Amadora
54%
Draw
25%
Casa Pia
20%
Expected goals
1.65–0.94
Estrela Amadora · Casa Pia
Estrela Amadora win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–0 (12.0%), 2–0 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Estrela Amadora win is 1–0 (12.0%).
Estrela Amadora score at least twice in 50%; Casa Pia in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Casa Pia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Estrela Amadora goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market reference | 54% | 25% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 25% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Estrela Amadora | 1.78 |
| Draw | 3.69 |
| Casa Pia | 4.56 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Estrela Amadora
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Braga | 2–1 | W |
Casa Pia
| 8 Aug | A | vs Maritimo | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | vs Benfica | 0–7 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estrela Amadora (Home · 4 matches) | Casa Pia (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 1.50 |
Home stats use Estrela Amadora's home record; away stats use Casa Pia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.