Estoril vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Estoril
49%
Draw
26%
Moreirense
24%
Expected goals
1.49–1.01
Estoril · Moreirense
Estoril win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–0 (12.3%), 2–1 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Estoril win is 1–0 (12.3%).
Estoril score at least twice in 44%; Moreirense in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Moreirense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Estoril goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market reference | 49% | 26% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 26% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Estoril | 1.95 |
| Draw | 3.56 |
| Moreirense | 3.85 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Estoril
| 7 Aug | H | vs Famalicao | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rio Ave | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Benfica | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Arouca | 0–0 | D |
Moreirense
| 9 Aug | H | vs Braga | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Arouca | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Porto | 1–2 | L |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Benfica | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estoril (Home · 4 matches) | Moreirense (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Estoril's home record; away stats use Moreirense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.