Estoril vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Estoril
56%
Draw
25%
Casa Pia
19%
Expected goals
1.67–0.91
Estoril · Casa Pia
Estoril win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.6%), 1–1 (11.7%), 2–0 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Estoril score at least twice in 50%; Casa Pia in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Casa Pia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Estoril goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market reference | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 25% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 1.74 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.70 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 1.79 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.84 | 3.85 | 3.75 | 3.60 | 3.68 | 3.21 | 3.85 Pinnacle |
| Casa Pia | 4.83 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.69 | 4.90 | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.50 | 3.94 | 4.90 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Estoril
| 7 Aug | H | vs Famalicao | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rio Ave | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Benfica | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Arouca | 0–0 | D |
Casa Pia
| 8 Aug | A | vs Maritimo | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | vs Benfica | 0–7 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estoril (Home · 4 matches) | Casa Pia (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 1.50 |
Home stats use Estoril's home record; away stats use Casa Pia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.