Estoril vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Estoril
57%
top pick
Draw
24%
Casa Pia
19%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Casa Pia win 19.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Estoril win. Expected goals 1.68–0.91 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.9%), 1–1 (11.3%), 2–0 (11.0%). It finished 1–2.
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Estoril
| 7 Aug | H | vs Famalicao | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Rio Ave | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Benfica | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Arouca | 0–0 | D |
Casa Pia
| 8 Aug | A | vs Maritimo | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | vs Benfica | 0–7 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estoril (Home · 5 matches) | Casa Pia (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 1.60 |
Home stats use Estoril's home record; away stats use Casa Pia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.