Casa Pia vs Sporting — Primeira Liga forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Casa Pia
20%
Draw
26%
Sporting
55%
Expected goals
1.00–1.71
Casa Pia · Sporting
Sporting win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 0–1 (10.5%), 0–2 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sporting win is 0–1 (10.5%).
Casa Pia score at least twice in 26%; Sporting in 51%.
Scoreline distribution
Sporting goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Casa Pia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 11.32 |
| Draw | 6.74 |
| Sporting | 1.22 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Casa Pia
| 8 Aug | A | vs Maritimo | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | vs Benfica | 0–7 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–0 | D |
Sporting
| 8 Aug | A | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nacional | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Casa Pia (Home · 4 matches) | Sporting (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Casa Pia's home record; away stats use Sporting's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.