Casa Pia vs Porto — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Casa Pia
6%
Draw
13%
Porto
80%
pick · result
Final score
1–4
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Porto win 80.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Porto win. Expected goals 0.68–2.02 against 1–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (19.1%), 1–2 (15.9%), 0–2 (15.3%). It finished 1–4.
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Casa Pia
| 8 Aug | A | vs Maritimo | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | vs Benfica | 0–7 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–0 | D |
Porto
| 9 Aug | H | vs Alverca | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Rio Ave | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Arouca | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Academico Viseu | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Moreirense | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Casa Pia (Home · 5 matches) | Porto (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Casa Pia's home record; away stats use Porto's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.