Benfica vs Gil Vicente — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 32.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Benfica
63%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Gil Vicente
14%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Benfica win 62.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Benfica win. Expected goals 1.92–0.87 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.3%), 1–1 (11.1%), 1–0 (11.0%). It finished 3–1.
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Benfica
| 9 Aug | H | vs Academico Viseu | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Casa Pia | 7–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Maritimo | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
Gil Vicente
| 9 Aug | H | vs Rio Ave | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Casa Pia | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Famalicao | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Academico Viseu | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Benfica | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Benfica (Home · 5 matches) | Gil Vicente (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Benfica's home record; away stats use Gil Vicente's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.