Arouca vs Santa Clara — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 32.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Arouca
35%
top pick
Draw
33%
Santa Clara
32%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Santa Clara win 31.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Arouca win. Expected goals 1.32–1.20 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.7%), 0–0 (10.1%), 0–1 (8.5%). It finished 1–2.
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Arouca
| 8 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Estoril | 0–0 | D |
Santa Clara
| 10 Aug | H | vs Nacional | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Academico Viseu | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Famalicao | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Rio Ave | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Arouca (Home · 5 matches) | Santa Clara (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 1.80 |
Home stats use Arouca's home record; away stats use Santa Clara's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.