Arouca vs Nacional — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Arouca
52%
Draw
25%
Nacional
22%
Expected goals
1.71–0.98
Arouca · Nacional
Arouca win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Arouca win is 1–0 (10.0%).
Arouca score at least twice in 50%; Nacional in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Nacional goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Arouca goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market reference | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 25% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.84 |
| Draw | 3.72 |
| Nacional | 4.17 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Arouca
| 8 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Estoril | 0–0 | D |
Nacional
| 10 Aug | A | vs Santa Clara | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sporting | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Arouca (Home · 4 matches) | Nacional (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Arouca's home record; away stats use Nacional's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.