Arouca vs Estrela Amadora — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Primeira Liga·Sunday, 11 October 2026·19:30
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Arouca | 2.17 |
| Draw | 3.53 |
| Estrela Amadora | 3.25 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 28 Sep · 04:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Arouca
| 8 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Estoril | 0–0 | D |
Estrela Amadora
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alverca | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Nacional | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Famalicao | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Braga | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Arouca (Home · 3 matches) | Estrela Amadora (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 5.00 |
Home stats use Arouca's home record; away stats use Estrela Amadora's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.