Alverca vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Alverca
49%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Rio Ave
24%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Alverca win 49.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Alverca win. Expected goals 1.49–0.97 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (12.2%), 2–0 (9.6%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Alverca
| 9 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sporting | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Santa Clara | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Braga | 1–2 | L |
Rio Ave
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Alverca (Home · 5 matches) | Rio Ave (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Alverca's home record; away stats use Rio Ave's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.