Alverca vs Arouca — Primeira Liga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Alverca
44%
Draw
30%
Arouca
26%
Expected goals
1.41–1.05
Alverca · Arouca
Alverca win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 1–0 (11.3%), 0–0 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Alverca win is 1–0 (11.3%).
Alverca score at least twice in 41%; Arouca in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Arouca goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Alverca goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market reference | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 30% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Alverca | 2.16 |
| Draw | 3.18 |
| Arouca | 3.67 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Alverca
| 9 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Estrela Amadora | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sporting | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Santa Clara | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Braga | 1–2 | L |
Arouca
| 8 Aug | A | vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Moreirense | 4–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Maritimo | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Estoril | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Alverca (Home · 4 matches) | Arouca (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Alverca's home record; away stats use Arouca's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.