Academico de Viseu vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Academico de Viseu
48%
Draw
27%
Rio Ave
25%
Expected goals
1.57–1.01
Academico de Viseu · Rio Ave
Academico de Viseu win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (10.0%), 2–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Academico de Viseu win is 1–0 (10.0%).
Academico de Viseu score at least twice in 46%; Rio Ave in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Rio Ave goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Academico de Viseu goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 26% | 18% |
| Market reference | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 27% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Academico de Viseu | 2.01 |
| Draw | 3.48 |
| Rio Ave | 3.75 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Rio Ave
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gil Vicente | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Porto | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Estoril | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sporting | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Santa Clara | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Academico de Viseu (Home · no matches) | Rio Ave (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.00 |
Home stats use Academico de Viseu's home record; away stats use Rio Ave's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.