๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier LeagueยทSaturday, 29 August 2026ยท16:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 2.21 | 2.21 |
| Draw | 3.86 | 3.86 |
| Newcastle | 3.15 | 3.15 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketTottenham
45%
Draw
25%
Newcastle
30%
Tottenham 1.45 xGexpected goals1.26 xG Newcastle
Tottenham win 45% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1โ1 (11.9%).
Tottenham score at least twice in 44%; Newcastle in 35%.
1โ1 11.9%2โ1 11.1%1โ0 10.8%2โ0 7.4%0โ0 6.9%1โ2 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Tottenham goals ยท columns = Newcastle goals ยท % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Over 4.5 goals14%
Tottenham clean sheet29%
Newcastle clean sheet22%
Tottenham score 2+44%
Newcastle score 2+35%
Tottenham score 3+17%
Model vs market
| Source | Tottenham | Draw | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 25% | 30% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Tottenham
| 16 Aug | H | vs Burnley | 3โ0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Man City | 2โ0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Bournemouth | 0โ1 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs West Ham | 3โ0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Brighton | 2โ2 | D |
Newcastle
| 16 Aug | A | vs Aston Villa | 0โ0 | D |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Liverpool | 2โ3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Leeds | 0โ0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Wolves | 1โ0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 0โ0 | D |
Head to head
| 10 Feb 26 | TottenhamvsNewcastle | 1 โ 2 |
| 2 Dec 25 | NewcastlevsTottenham | 2 โ 2 |
Tottenham: 0W 1D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Tottenham (Home) | Newcastle (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 68.4% | 52.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.2% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 15.8% | 26.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.79 | 2.21 |
Home stats use Tottenham's home record; away stats use Newcastle's away record this season.