Tottenham vs Newcastle — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Tottenham
44%
top pick
Draw
25%
Newcastle
31%
result
Final score
0–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Newcastle win 30.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Tottenham win. Expected goals 1.44–1.27 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.1%), 2–1 (10.7%), 1–0 (10.4%). It finished 0–2.
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Tottenham
| 22 Aug | A | vs Brentford | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Newcastle | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Nottm Forest | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Everton | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Aston Villa | 2–3 | L |
Newcastle
| 23 Aug | H | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Tottenham | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tottenham (Home · 3 matches) | Newcastle (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Tottenham's home record; away stats use Newcastle's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.