Tottenham vs Aston Villa — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Tottenham
48%
top pick
Draw
27%
Aston Villa
25%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Aston Villa win 25.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Tottenham win. Expected goals 1.49–1.08 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (11.9%), 2–1 (10.7%). It finished 2–3.
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Tottenham
| 22 Aug | A | vs Brentford | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Newcastle | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Nottm Forest | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Everton | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Aston Villa | 2–3 | L |
Aston Villa
| 23 Aug | A | vs Brighton | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Arsenal | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hull | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nottm Forest | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tottenham (Home · 5 matches) | Aston Villa (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Tottenham's home record; away stats use Aston Villa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.