Newcastle vs Bournemouth — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Newcastle
46%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Bournemouth
28%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Newcastle win. Expected goals 1.67–1.31 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–0 (8.0%). It finished 2–2.
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Newcastle
| 23 Aug | H | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Tottenham | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–1 | W |
Bournemouth
| 23 Aug | A | vs Man City | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Everton | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Newcastle (Home · 3 matches) | Bournemouth (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Newcastle's home record; away stats use Bournemouth's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.