Newcastle vs Aston Villa — Premier League forecast, Saturday, 17 October 2026
Premier League·Saturday, 17 October 2026·16:30
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Newcastle | 2.09 |
| Draw | 3.81 |
| Aston Villa | 3.22 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 04 Oct · 04:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Newcastle
| 23 Aug | H | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Tottenham | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–1 | W |
Aston Villa
| 23 Aug | A | vs Brighton | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Arsenal | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hull | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nottm Forest | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Newcastle (Home · 3 matches) | Aston Villa (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Newcastle's home record; away stats use Aston Villa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.