Leeds vs Newcastle — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Leeds
42%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Newcastle
30%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Leeds win 42.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Leeds win. Expected goals 1.45–1.24 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.1%), 2–1 (9.5%), 1–0 (9.4%). It finished 4–1.
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Leeds
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nottm Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Brighton | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 0–0 | D |
Newcastle
| 23 Aug | H | vs Liverpool | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Tottenham | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Leeds | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leeds (Home · 4 matches) | Newcastle (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Leeds's home record; away stats use Newcastle's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.