Leeds vs Brentford — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Leeds
37%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Brentford
34%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Leeds win. Expected goals 1.34–1.28 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.5%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Leeds
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nottm Forest | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brentford | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Brighton | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Newcastle | 4–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Crystal Palace | 0–0 | D |
Brentford
| 22 Aug | H | vs Tottenham | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Leeds | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Sunderland | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Chelsea | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leeds (Home · 3 matches) | Brentford (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Leeds's home record; away stats use Brentford's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.