๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier LeagueยทSunday, 30 August 2026ยท13:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 2.64 | 2.64 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.38 |
| Brentford | 2.79 | 2.79 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketLeeds
37%
Draw
29%
Brentford
35%
Leeds 1.33 xGexpected goals1.29 xG Brentford
Leeds win 37% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1โ1 (13.6%).
Leeds score at least twice in 38%; Brentford in 37%.
1โ1 13.6%1โ0 8.7%2โ1 8.4%0โ0 8.3%0โ1 8.3%1โ2 7.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Leeds goals ยท columns = Brentford goals ยท % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Leeds clean sheet28%
Brentford clean sheet26%
Leeds score 2+38%
Brentford score 2+37%
Leeds score 3+15%
Model vs market
| Source | Leeds | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 37% | 29% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 29% | 35% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Leeds
| 18 Aug | H | vs Everton | 1โ0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Arsenal | 0โ5 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Newcastle | 0โ0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 0โ1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Wolves | 3โ1 | W |
Brentford
| 17 Aug | A | vs Nottm Forest | 1โ3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Aston Villa | 1โ0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Sunderland | 1โ2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Chelsea | 2โ2 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fulham | 1โ3 | L |
Head to head
| 21 Mar 26 | LeedsvsBrentford | 0 โ 0 |
| 14 Dec 25 | BrentfordvsLeeds | 1 โ 1 |
Leeds: 0W 2D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Leeds (Home) | Brentford (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.6% | 47.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.9% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 31.6% | 26.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.63 | 2.79 |
Home stats use Leeds's home record; away stats use Brentford's away record this season.