๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier LeagueยทSunday, 30 August 2026ยท13:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Draw | 3.97 | 3.97 |
| Brighton | 4.09 | 4.09 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketChelsea
53%
Draw
24%
Brighton
23%
Chelsea 1.62 xGexpected goals1.09 xG Brighton
Chelsea win 53% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1โ0 (11.7%).
Chelsea score at least twice in 49%; Brighton in 29%.
1โ0 11.7%2โ1 11.6%1โ1 11.5%2โ0 9.1%0โ0 6.8%0โ1 5.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Chelsea goals ยท columns = Brighton goals ยท % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals14%
Chelsea clean sheet34%
Brighton clean sheet19%
Chelsea score 2+49%
Brighton score 2+29%
Chelsea score 3+22%
Model vs market
| Source | Chelsea | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 24% | 23% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Chelsea
| 17 Aug | H | vs Crystal Palace | 0โ0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs West Ham | 5โ1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fulham | 2โ0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brentford | 2โ2 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Man Utd | 1โ2 | L |
Brighton
| 16 Aug | H | vs Fulham | 1โ1 | D |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Everton | 0โ2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Man City | 2โ1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 1โ2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Tottenham | 2โ2 | D |
Head to head
| 21 Apr 26 | BrightonvsChelsea | 3 โ 0 |
| 27 Sept 25 | ChelseavsBrighton | 1 โ 3 |
Chelsea: 0W 0D 2L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Chelsea (Home) | Brighton (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.9% | 52.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.9% | 42.1% |
| Clean sheet | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.68 | 2.53 |
Home stats use Chelsea's home record; away stats use Brighton's away record this season.