Brentford vs Chelsea — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 15.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Brentford
34%
result
Draw
27%
Chelsea
40%
top pick
Final score
3–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Brentford win 33.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Chelsea win. Expected goals 1.36–1.49 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (8.0%). It finished 3–0.
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Brentford
| 22 Aug | H | vs Tottenham | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Leeds | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Sunderland | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Chelsea | 3–0 | W |
Chelsea
| 24 Aug | A | vs Fulham | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Brighton | 4–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Arsenal | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Hull | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Brentford | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Brentford (Home · 5 matches) | Chelsea (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Brentford's home record; away stats use Chelsea's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.