Bournemouth vs Liverpool — Premier League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bournemouth
30%
Draw
25%
Liverpool
45%
Expected goals
1.22–1.53
Bournemouth · Liverpool
Liverpool win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (9.5%), 0–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Liverpool win is 1–2 (9.5%).
Bournemouth score at least twice in 34%; Liverpool in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
Liverpool goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bournemouth goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Market reference | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 3.22 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.26 | 3.05 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.18 | 2.75 | 3.26 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.81 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.90 | 3.75 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.42 | 3.90 1xBet |
| Liverpool | 2.17 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 2.21 | 2.18 | 2.15 | 2.10 | 2.15 | 2.11 | 2.21 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Bournemouth
| 23 Aug | A | vs Man City | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Everton | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–1 | L |
Liverpool
| 23 Aug | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nottm Forest | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Ipswich | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Fulham | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bournemouth (Home · 3 matches) | Liverpool (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Bournemouth's home record; away stats use Liverpool's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.