Bournemouth vs Brentford — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bournemouth
39%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
Brentford
34%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bournemouth win. Expected goals 1.42–1.32 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.5%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–0 (8.6%). It finished 2–2.
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Bournemouth
| 23 Aug | A | vs Man City | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Everton | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Newcastle | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Liverpool | 0–1 | L |
Brentford
| 22 Aug | H | vs Tottenham | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Leeds | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Sunderland | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bournemouth | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Chelsea | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bournemouth (Home · 5 matches) | Brentford (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Bournemouth's home record; away stats use Brentford's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.