๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier LeagueยทMonday, 31 August 2026ยท19:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| Draw | 4.36 | 4.36 |
| Arsenal | 1.53 | 1.53 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAston Villa
15%
Draw
22%
Arsenal
64%
Aston Villa 0.92 xGexpected goals1.80 xG Arsenal
Arsenal win 64% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0โ1 (14.1%).
Aston Villa score at least twice in 23%; Arsenal in 56%.
0โ1 14.1%1โ2 13.6%0โ2 11.3%1โ1 10.4%1โ3 6.5%0โ0 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 14.1 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 10.4 | 13.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Aston Villa goals ยท columns = Arsenal goals ยท % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score53%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals14%
Aston Villa clean sheet14%
Arsenal clean sheet40%
Aston Villa score 2+23%
Arsenal score 2+56%
Aston Villa score 3+7%
Model vs market
| Source | Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 15% | 22% | 64% |
| Metis Forecast | 15% | 22% | 64% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Aston Villa
| 16 Aug | H | vs Newcastle | 0โ0 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Brentford | 0โ1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Crystal Palace | 0โ3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Everton | 0โ0 | D |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Sunderland | 1โ1 | D |
Arsenal
| 17 Aug | A | vs Man Utd | 1โ0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Leeds | 5โ0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Liverpool | 0โ1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Nottm Forest | 3โ0 | W |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Man City | 1โ1 | D |
Head to head
| 30 Dec 25 | ArsenalvsAston Villa | 4 โ 1 |
| 6 Dec 25 | Aston VillavsArsenal | 2 โ 1 |
Aston Villa: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Aston Villa (Home) | Arsenal (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.6% | 52.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.9% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 31.6% | 42.1% |
| Avg goals | 2.84 | 2.42 |
Home stats use Aston Villa's home record; away stats use Arsenal's away record this season.