Aston Villa vs Arsenal — Premier League result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Aston Villa
15%
Draw
22%
Arsenal
64%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Arsenal win 63.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Arsenal win. Expected goals 0.94–1.82 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (13.9%), 1–2 (13.7%), 0–2 (11.1%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Aston Villa
| 23 Aug | A | vs Brighton | 0–4 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Arsenal | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hull | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nottm Forest | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
Arsenal
| 21 Aug | H | vs Coventry | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Aston Villa | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Chelsea | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Sunderland | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Brighton | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aston Villa (Home · 2 matches) | Arsenal (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Aston Villa's home record; away stats use Arsenal's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.