🇺🇸 MLS·Saturday, 29 August 2026·23:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| DC United | 3.86 | 3.86 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| Los Angeles FC | 1.92 | 1.92 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketDC United
25%
Draw
24%
Los Angeles FC
51%
DC United 1.18 xGexpected goals1.87 xG Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.3%).
DC United score at least twice in 33%; Los Angeles FC in 55%.
1–1 11.3%1–2 8.6%0–2 8.1%0–1 7.3%2–1 7.0%1–3 5.8%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = DC United goals · columns = Los Angeles FC goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score59%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Over 4.5 goals19%
DC United clean sheet16%
Los Angeles FC clean sheet31%
DC United score 2+33%
Los Angeles FC score 2+55%
DC United score 3+11%
Model vs market
| Source | DC United | Draw | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 24% | 51% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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DC United
| 22 Feb | H | vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Mar | H | vs Inter Miami | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Mar | A | vs Atlanta Utd | 0–0 | D |
Los Angeles FC
| 22 Feb | H | vs Inter Miami | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | A | vs Houston Dynamo | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Mar | H | vs FC Dallas | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | H | vs St. Louis City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Mar | A | vs Austin FC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | DC United (Home) | Los Angeles FC (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 10.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.70 | 2.40 |
Home stats use DC United's home record; away stats use Los Angeles FC's away record this season.