St Etienne vs Montpellier — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St Etienne
61%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Montpellier
17%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a St Etienne win 60.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Etienne win. Expected goals 1.75–0.83 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.4%), 2–0 (12.0%), 1–1 (10.6%). It finished 3–1.
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St Etienne
| 8 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Clermont | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
Montpellier
| 8 Aug | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Dunkerque | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Etienne | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Etienne (Home · 5 matches) | Montpellier (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use St Etienne's home record; away stats use Montpellier's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.