St Etienne vs Laval — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Etienne
73%
Draw
17%
Laval
10%
Expected goals
2.13–0.70
St Etienne · Laval
St Etienne win 73% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (14.0%), 1–0 (13.1%), 2–1 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
St Etienne score at least twice in 64%; Laval in 16%.
Scoreline distribution
Laval goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.0 | 10.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Etienne goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Market reference | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Metis Forecast | 73% | 17% | 10% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Etienne | 1.33 |
| Draw | 5.26 |
| Laval | 8.41 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St Etienne
| 8 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Clermont | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
Laval
| 8 Aug | A | vs Rodez | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Red Star | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Etienne (Home · 5 matches) | Laval (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.40 |
Home stats use St Etienne's home record; away stats use Laval's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.