Rodez vs Nancy — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 14.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rodez
48%
top pick
Draw
28%
Nancy
24%
result
Final score
3–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Nancy win 23.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rodez win. Expected goals 1.46–0.96 against 3–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–0 (12.0%), 0–0 (9.9%). It finished 3–4.
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Rodez
| 8 Aug | H | vs Laval | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nantes | 5–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Pau FC | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Metz | 1–4 | L |
Nancy
| 8 Aug | A | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Pau FC | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Dunkerque | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Nantes | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rodez (Home · 6 matches) | Nancy (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Rodez's home record; away stats use Nancy's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.