Rodez vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 14.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rodez
55%
top pick
Draw
26%
Grenoble
19%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Grenoble win 19.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rodez win. Expected goals 1.71–0.91 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–0 (11.5%), 2–0 (10.6%). It finished 0–1.
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Rodez
| 8 Aug | H | vs Laval | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nantes | 5–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Pau FC | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Metz | 1–4 | L |
Grenoble
| 8 Aug | A | vs Dunkerque | 2–4 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Metz | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs St Etienne | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Laval | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Annecy | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rodez (Home · 6 matches) | Grenoble (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Rodez's home record; away stats use Grenoble's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.