Reims vs Montpellier — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026

Ligue 2·Friday, 18 September 2026

1 – 1

Metis pre-match forecast

Independent model — no market price

Frozen as published · 14.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.

Reims

44%

top pick

Draw

30%

result

Montpellier

26%

Final score

1–1

Top pick missed

Metis gave the draw 29.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Reims win. Expected goals 1.36–0.98 against 1–1 actual.

Forecast against the result

Over 2.5 goals42%2 scored
Both teams score48%yes
Reims clean sheet37%no
Montpellier clean sheet26%no
Reims score 2+39%no
Montpellier score 2+26%no

How this forecast scored

Ranked probability score0.1325
1X2 Brier score0.7620
Probability on the result29.5%

Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.

Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (12.0%), 0–0 (10.6%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.

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Recent form

Reims

8 AugAvs Clermont0–0D
14 AugHvs Dunkerque3–3D
24 AugHvs Annecy3–1W
29 AugAvs Red Star4–1W
5 SeptHvs Guingamp2–2D

Montpellier

8 AugHvs Dijon1–1D
14 AugAvs Nancy1–0W
21 AugAvs Dunkerque1–0W
28 AugHvs Boulogne0–0D
5 SeptAvs St Etienne1–3L

Head to head

No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.

Model context

StatReims
(Home · 6 matches)
Montpellier
(Away · 6 matches)
BTTS rate83.3%33.3%
Over 2.5 rate66.7%50.0%
Clean sheet16.7%66.7%
Avg goals4.002.33

Home stats use Reims's home record; away stats use Montpellier's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.