Reims vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Reims
55%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
Guingamp
19%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Reims win. Expected goals 1.68–0.97 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–0 (12.0%), 2–1 (10.9%). It finished 2–2.
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Reims
| 8 Aug | A | vs Clermont | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Dunkerque | 3–3 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Annecy | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Red Star | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Guingamp | 2–2 | D |
Guingamp
| 8 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Reims | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Reims (Home · 6 matches) | Guingamp (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Reims's home record; away stats use Guingamp's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.