PAU vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
PAU
51%
Draw
28%
Grenoble
20%
Expected goals
1.65–0.94
PAU · Grenoble
PAU win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (10.7%), 2–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely PAU win is 1–0 (10.7%).
PAU score at least twice in 49%; Grenoble in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Grenoble goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.4 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: PAU goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market reference | 51% | 28% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 28% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| PAU | 1.88 |
| Draw | 3.37 |
| Grenoble | 4.58 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Grenoble
| 8 Aug | A | vs Dunkerque | 2–4 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Metz | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs St Etienne | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Laval | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Annecy | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | PAU (Home · no matches) | Grenoble (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.20 |
Home stats use PAU's home record; away stats use Grenoble's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.