Pau FC vs Dunkerque — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 14.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
PAU
45%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Dunkerque
26%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a PAU win 45.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a PAU win. Expected goals 1.44–1.04 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–0 (11.1%), 0–0 (9.4%). It finished 2–0.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Pau FC
| 8 Aug | H | vs Annecy | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Nancy | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Rodez | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Sochaux | 1–1 | D |
Dunkerque
| 8 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Reims | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Clermont | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pau FC (Home · 6 matches) | Dunkerque (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Pau FC's home record; away stats use Dunkerque's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.