Nancy vs Laval — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Nancy
62%
Draw
22%
Laval
16%
Expected goals
1.72–0.81
Nancy · Laval
Nancy win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15.2%), 2–0 (12.4%), 2–1 (11.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Nancy score at least twice in 53%; Laval in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Laval goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Nancy goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Market reference | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Nancy | 1.55 |
| Draw | 4.27 |
| Laval | 5.81 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.66–0.85 → 1.72–0.81
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Nancy
| 8 Aug | A | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Pau FC | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Dunkerque | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Nantes | 0–1 | L |
Laval
| 8 Aug | A | vs Rodez | 1–3 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Red Star | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nancy (Home · 4 matches) | Laval (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Nancy's home record; away stats use Laval's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.