Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Montpellier
41%
Draw
28%
RED Star FC 93
32%
Expected goals
1.40–1.19
Montpellier · RED Star FC 93
Montpellier win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–0 (9.5%), 2–1 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Montpellier score at least twice in 41%; RED Star FC 93 in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
RED Star FC 93 goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Montpellier goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 28% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Montpellier | 2.34 |
| Draw | 3.41 |
| RED Star FC 93 | 2.99 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Montpellier
| 8 Aug | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Dunkerque | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Etienne | 1–3 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Montpellier (Home · 4 matches) | RED Star FC 93 (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 1.25 | — |
Home stats use Montpellier's home record; away stats use RED Star FC 93's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.