Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Montpellier
39%
Draw
25%
RED Star FC 93
36%
Expected goals
1.35–1.26
Montpellier · RED Star FC 93
Montpellier win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 0–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Montpellier score at least twice in 39%; RED Star FC 93 in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
RED Star FC 93 goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Montpellier goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 25% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
Montpellier
| 8 Aug | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Dunkerque | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Etienne | 1–3 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Montpellier (Home · 4 matches) | RED Star FC 93 (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 1.25 | — |
Home stats use Montpellier's home record; away stats use RED Star FC 93's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.