Montpellier vs Pau FC — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Montpellier
51%
pick · result
Draw
27%
PAU
22%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Montpellier win 51.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Montpellier win. Expected goals 1.51–0.97 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.1%), 1–1 (12.7%), 2–1 (10.6%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Montpellier
| 8 Aug | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Dunkerque | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs St Etienne | 1–3 | L |
Pau FC
| 8 Aug | H | vs Annecy | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Nancy | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Rodez | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Sochaux | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Montpellier (Home · 5 matches) | Pau FC (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Montpellier's home record; away stats use Pau FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.