Guingamp vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Guingamp
40%
Draw
27%
RED Star FC 93
33%
Expected goals
1.32–1.15
Guingamp · RED Star FC 93
Guingamp win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (10.2%), 0–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Guingamp score at least twice in 38%; RED Star FC 93 in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
RED Star FC 93 goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Guingamp goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market reference | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 27% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp | 2.42 | 2.35 | 2.30 | 2.36 | 2.45 | 2.30 | 2.38 | 2.34 | 2.24 | 2.45 Betano |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.42 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.42 | 3.11 | 3.55 Pinnacle |
| RED Star FC 93 | 2.91 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.82 | 2.92 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.81 | 2.61 | 2.92 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Guingamp
| 8 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Reims | 2–2 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Guingamp (Home · 4 matches) | RED Star FC 93 (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | — |
Home stats use Guingamp's home record; away stats use RED Star FC 93's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.