Guingamp vs Red Star — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Guingamp
40%
top pick
Draw
27%
RED Star FC 93
33%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a RED Star FC 93 win 33.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Guingamp win. Expected goals 1.32–1.15 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (10.2%), 0–1 (9.5%). It finished 1–3.
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Guingamp
| 8 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Reims | 2–2 | D |
Red Star
| 8 Aug | A | vs Nantes | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Sochaux | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Boulogne | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Reims | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Laval | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Guingamp (Home · 6 matches) | Red Star (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Guingamp's home record; away stats use Red Star's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.