Guingamp vs PAU — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 16 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Guingamp
46%
Draw
26%
PAU
28%
Expected goals
1.42–1.06
Guingamp · PAU
Guingamp win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–0 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Guingamp win is 1–0 (11.7%).
Guingamp score at least twice in 42%; PAU in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
PAU goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Guingamp goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market reference | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Guingamp | 2.08 |
| Draw | 3.63 |
| PAU | 3.33 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Guingamp
| 8 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Reims | 2–2 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Guingamp (Home · 4 matches) | PAU (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | — |
Home stats use Guingamp's home record; away stats use PAU's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.