Guingamp vs Annecy — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Guingamp
45%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Annecy
27%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Guingamp win 45.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Guingamp win. Expected goals 1.44–1.04 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (10.9%), 0–0 (9.3%). It finished 2–1.
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Guingamp
| 8 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Reims | 2–2 | D |
Annecy
| 8 Aug | A | vs Pau FC | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Reims | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Metz | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Grenoble | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Guingamp (Home · 6 matches) | Annecy (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Guingamp's home record; away stats use Annecy's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.