Grenoble vs Boulogne — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 16 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Grenoble
33%
Draw
30%
Boulogne
37%
Expected goals
1.05–1.10
Grenoble · Boulogne
Boulogne win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.9%), 0–1 (12.7%), 0–0 (12.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Grenoble score at least twice in 28%; Boulogne in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Boulogne goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.9 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Grenoble goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| Market reference | 33% | 30% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 30% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Grenoble | 2.89 |
| Draw | 3.11 |
| Boulogne | 2.58 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Grenoble
| 8 Aug | A | vs Dunkerque | 2–4 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Metz | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs St Etienne | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Laval | 3–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Annecy | 1–2 | L |
Boulogne
| 8 Aug | H | vs Nancy | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Montpellier | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Grenoble (Home · 3 matches) | Boulogne (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 1.67 | 0.33 |
Home stats use Grenoble's home record; away stats use Boulogne's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.