Dunkerque vs St Etienne — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Dunkerque
21%
result
Draw
22%
St Etienne
57%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Dunkerque win 20.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Etienne win. Expected goals 0.94–1.68 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (13.0%), 1–2 (11.0%), 0–2 (10.9%). It finished 2–1.
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Dunkerque
| 8 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Reims | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Clermont | 1–1 | D |
St Etienne
| 8 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Clermont | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Dijon | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Montpellier | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dunkerque (Home · 6 matches) | St Etienne (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Dunkerque's home record; away stats use St Etienne's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.