Dunkerque vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Dunkerque
36%
Draw
26%
Guingamp
38%
Expected goals
1.20–1.22
Dunkerque · Guingamp
Guingamp win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 0–1 (11.0%), 1–0 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Dunkerque score at least twice in 34%; Guingamp in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Guingamp goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Dunkerque goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market reference | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 26% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 2.65 |
| Draw | 3.64 |
| Guingamp | 2.50 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Dunkerque
| 8 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Reims | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Clermont | 1–1 | D |
Guingamp
| 8 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Reims | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dunkerque (Home · 6 matches) | Guingamp (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Dunkerque's home record; away stats use Guingamp's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.