Dunkerque vs Clermont — Ligue 2 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Dunkerque
54%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
Clermont
21%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Dunkerque win. Expected goals 1.61–0.95 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.3%), 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (10.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Dunkerque
| 8 Aug | H | vs Grenoble | 4–2 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Reims | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Nancy | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Clermont | 1–1 | D |
Clermont
| 8 Aug | H | vs Reims | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs St Etienne | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sochaux | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Dunkerque | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dunkerque (Home · 6 matches) | Clermont (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Dunkerque's home record; away stats use Clermont's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.